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Which Company Ranks #1 in Agent Arena end of November on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Alibaba is ranked #1 by Rank on the Arena AI Agent leaderboard on November 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Outcome sourced from Arena AI. The ranking is determined by the "Rank" column of the Arena AI Agent leaderboard, with the "Labs" view selected (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent?rankBy=labs). Rankings on any other Arena AI leaderboard will not be considered. If multiple companies are tied on Rank, the company whose highest-ranked model has the highest Net Improvement (including any underlying, unrounded values reflected in the data below the leaderboard) will be considered ranked higher. If a tie remains, the company whose name, as listed in this market, co

Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 0 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢ (now)2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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