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C.J. Stroud on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if C.J. Stroud records the most passing yards among all players in Week 9 of the 2026 Pro Football regular season. If two or more players tie for the most passing yards, each tied player's market will settle to $1.00 divided by the number of tied players. If a player not listed records the most passing yards, the market will settle to No. If the listed player does not achieve the most passing yards for any reason, including not playing or his game being cancelled, suspended, or moved outside Week 9, the market will settle to No. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)
98%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
98¢ (now)0.2¢$0.1098.2%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
C.J. Stroud98¢98%0.2¢—4%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
Josh Allen97¢97%0.3¢—6%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
Carson Wentz83¢83%1.3¢—34%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
Carson Wentz99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
C.J. Stroud20¢20%1.5¢—40%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
Josh Allen27¢27%1.9¢—54%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
Kenneth Walker97¢97%0.3¢—6%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
Jordan Mason99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
James Cook III92¢92%0.7¢—16%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
Bucky Irving99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
Jordan Mason89¢89%0.9¢—22%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
CeeDee Lamb97¢97%0.3¢—6%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
Justin Jefferson96¢96%0.4¢—8%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
Tee Higgins99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
Justin Jefferson99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
Jordan Addison99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
Aaron Jones Sr.94¢94%0.5¢—12%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
DJ Moore99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
DJ Moore99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC
Khalil Shakir99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Nov 24, 01:15 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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