What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 8¢, about 1¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $4.37.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 9% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 8%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Joe Burrow on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Joe Burrow records the most passing yards among all players in Week 10 of the 2026 Pro Football regular season. If two or more players tie for the most passing yards, each tied player's market will settle to $1.00 divided by the number of tied players. If a player not listed records the most passing yards, the market will settle to No. If the listed player does not achieve the most passing yards for any reason, including not playing or his game being cancelled, suspended, or moved outside Week 10, the market will settle to No. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 176 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

16% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
8¢ (now)	0.7¢	$4.37	8.7%
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Joe Burrow	14¢	14%	1.1¢	—	28%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Brock Purdy	28¢	28%	1.9¢	—	56%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Jared Goff	13¢	13%	1.1¢	—	26%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Matthew Stafford	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Dak Prescott	11¢	11%	0.9¢	—	22%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Drake Maye	22¢	22%	1.6¢	—	44%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Jordan Love	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Kirk Cousins	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Trevor Lawrence	11¢	11%	0.9¢	—	22%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Michael Penix Jr.	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
C.J. Stroud	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Jacoby Brissett	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Josh Allen	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Bryce Young	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Geno Smith	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Tyler Shough	11¢	11%	0.9¢	—	22%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Malik Willis	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Daniel Jones	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Aaron Rodgers	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Carson Wentz	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Jayden Daniels	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Cam Ward	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Shedeur Sanders	42¢	42%	2.3¢	—	84%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Joe Burrow	35¢	35%	2.2¢	—	70%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Brock Purdy	28¢	28%	1.9¢	—	56%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Matthew Stafford	25¢	25%	1.8¢	—	50%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Trevor Lawrence	26¢	26%	1.8¢	—	52%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Dak Prescott	24¢	24%	1.7¢	—	48%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Jacoby Brissett	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Aaron Rodgers	27¢	27%	1.9¢	—	54%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Kirk Cousins	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Jordan Love	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
C.J. Stroud	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Bryce Young	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Carson Wentz	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Michael Penix Jr.	7¢	7%	0.6¢	—	14%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Tyler Shough	25¢	25%	1.8¢	—	50%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Drake Maye	27¢	27%	1.9¢	—	54%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Jared Goff	25¢	25%	1.8¢	—	50%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC
Jayden Daniels	8¢	8%	0.7¢	—	16%	Dec 01, 01:15 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 176 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.