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Kirill Kaprizov on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Kirill Kaprizov records 120 or more points in the 2026-27 NHL regular season. Statistics are based on official regular season games only. If the 202627 NHL season is cancelled, suspended, or shortened, the market will settle based on the players final official statistics for the season. Outcome sourced from NHL.

Market says (typical open contract)
98%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%
98¢ (now)0.2¢$0.1098.2%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Kirill Kaprizov94¢94%0.5¢—12%0Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Nick Suzuki85¢85%1.2¢—30%0Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
David Pastrnak73¢73%1.9¢—54%0Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Macklin Celebrini89¢89%0.9¢—22%0Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Leon Draisaitl98¢98%0.2¢—4%0Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Nathan MacKinnon98¢98%0.2¢—4%0Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Nikita Kucherov99¢99%0.1¢—2%0Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Connor McDavid98¢98%0.2¢—4%0Apr 25, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.