What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 27¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $3.47.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 29% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 27%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Kirill Kaprizov on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Kirill Kaprizov records 50 or more goals in the 2026-27 NHL regular season. Statistics are based on official regular season games only. If the 202627 NHL season is cancelled, suspended, or shortened, the market will settle based on the players final official statistics for the season. Outcome sourced from NHL.

Market says (typical open contract)

27%

Median YES price across 23 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

54% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
27¢ (now)	1.9¢	$3.47	28.9%
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Kirill Kaprizov	5¢	5%	0.5¢	—	10%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
William Nylander	36¢	36%	2.2¢	—	72%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Wyatt Johnston	3¢	3%	0.3¢	—	6%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Nikita Kucherov	47¢	47%	2.4¢	—	94%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Nathan MacKinnon	32¢	32%	2.1¢	—	64%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Morgan Geekie	84¢	84%	1.3¢	—	32%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Matt Boldy	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Leon Draisaitl	80¢	80%	1.5¢	—	40%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Kyle Connor	27¢	27%	1.9¢	—	54%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Jason Robertson	16¢	16%	1.3¢	—	32%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Jake Guentzel	3¢	3%	0.3¢	—	6%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Filip Forsberg	55¢	55%	2.4¢	—	90%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
David Pastrnak	6¢	6%	0.5¢	—	12%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Connor McDavid	95¢	95%	0.5¢	—	10%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Cutter Gauthier	16¢	16%	1.3¢	—	32%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Cole Caufield	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Brandon Hagel	15¢	15%	1.2¢	—	30%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Auston Matthews	71¢	71%	2.0¢	—	58%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Adrian Kempe	73¢	73%	1.9¢	—	54%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Alex DeBrincat	60¢	60%	2.3¢	—	80%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Dylan Guenther	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Tage Thompson	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC
Macklin Celebrini	10¢	10%	0.9¢	—	20%	Apr 25, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.