What is the fee on Polymarket US for this market?

At the current typical price of 48¢, about 2¢ per contract (9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity, the rate for accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume since 6 November 2026; 6.95% in a new account's first week). On a $50 trade that is about $2.47.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 50% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 48%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Polymarket US › Sports

Alabama Regular Season Win Total on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if Alabama finishes the 2026 College Football regular season with over 9.5 wins. Statistics are based on official regular season games only. Conference championship games, bowl games, and college football playoff games do not count. Outcome sourced from the relevant governing body.

Market says (typical open contract)

48%

Median YES price across 190 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

96% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	2.0¢	$3.32	32.0%
48¢ (now)	2.4¢	$2.47	50.4%
50¢	2.4¢	$2.38	52.4%
70¢	2.0¢	$1.43	72.0%
90¢	0.9¢	$0.47	90.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Alabama Regular Season Win Total	80¢	80%	1.5¢	—	40%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Alabama Regular Season Win Total	95¢	95%	0.5¢	—	10%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Alabama Regular Season Win Total	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Auburn Regular Season Win Total	9¢	9%	0.8¢	—	18%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Auburn Regular Season Win Total	60¢	60%	2.3¢	—	80%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Auburn Regular Season Win Total	5¢	5%	0.5¢	—	10%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Baylor Regular Season Win Total	3¢	3%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Baylor Regular Season Win Total	29¢	29%	2.0¢	—	58%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Baylor Regular Season Win Total	67¢	67%	2.1¢	—	66%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Clemson Regular Season Win Total	12¢	12%	1.0¢	—	24%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Clemson Regular Season Win Total	47¢	47%	2.4¢	—	94%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Clemson Regular Season Win Total	87¢	87%	1.1¢	—	26%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Florida Regular Season Win Total	19¢	19%	1.5¢	—	38%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Florida Regular Season Win Total	64¢	64%	2.2¢	—	72%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Florida Regular Season Win Total	96¢	96%	0.4¢	—	8%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Georgia Regular Season Win Total	71¢	71%	2.0¢	—	58%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Georgia Regular Season Win Total	94¢	94%	0.5¢	—	12%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Georgia Regular Season Win Total	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Indiana Regular Season Win Total	60¢	60%	2.3¢	—	80%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Indiana Regular Season Win Total	95¢	95%	0.5¢	—	10%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Indiana Regular Season Win Total	99¢	99%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Iowa Regular Season Win Total	40¢	40%	2.3¢	—	80%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Iowa Regular Season Win Total	81¢	81%	1.5¢	—	38%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Iowa Regular Season Win Total	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
LSU Regular Season Win Total	29¢	29%	2.0¢	—	58%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
LSU Regular Season Win Total	74¢	74%	1.8¢	—	52%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
LSU Regular Season Win Total	4¢	4%	0.4¢	—	8%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Miami FL Regular Season Win Total	74¢	74%	1.8¢	—	52%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Miami FL Regular Season Win Total	97¢	97%	0.3¢	—	6%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Miami FL Regular Season Win Total	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Michigan Regular Season Win Total	5¢	5%	0.5¢	—	10%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Michigan Regular Season Win Total	21¢	21%	1.6¢	—	42%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Ole Miss Regular Season Win Total	50¢	50%	2.4¢	—	100%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Ole Miss Regular Season Win Total	93¢	93%	0.6¢	—	14%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Ole Miss Regular Season Win Total	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Ohio State Regular Season Win Total	40¢	40%	2.3¢	—	80%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Ohio State Regular Season Win Total	69¢	69%	2.0¢	—	62%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Oregon Regular Season Win Total	59¢	59%	2.3¢	—	82%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Oregon Regular Season Win Total	89¢	89%	0.9¢	—	22%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC
Penn State Regular Season Win Total	46¢	46%	2.4¢	—	92%	Dec 13, 04:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 190 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.