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How high will gas prices in California get this year on Polymarket US

This market will settle to Yes if the California average price of regular gas is greater than $8.0000 for any date from October 27, 2026 through December 31, 2026, inclusive. Outcome sourced from AAA. This market settles based on the California average gas prices published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=CA. For full rules, see: https://www.polymarketexchange.com/files/products/PMUS%20-%20AAAGASPC%20-%20(2026.08.07).pdf

Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 0 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢2.0¢$3.3232.0%
50¢ (now)2.4¢$2.3852.4%
70¢2.0¢$1.4372.0%
90¢0.9¢$0.4790.9%

Resting (maker) orders pay nothing; orders that take liquidity pay the fee. Formula: 9.5% × price × (1 − price) per share on orders that take liquidity (accounts under $10,000 of 30-day volume; 6.95% in a new account's first week and above $250,000). Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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