Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Kansas Senate race on Kalshi
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Kansas for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: United States Congress.
Market says (typical open contract)
77%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
46% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 77¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $0.80 | 78.2% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Democratics win the Senate race in Kansas? · Democratic party | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 12,936 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kansas? · Republican party | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 5,593 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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