What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.48.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Republican senate seats on Kalshi

If the Republican party has exactly 57 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: United States Congress.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the Republican party hold fewer than 45 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · Below 45	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	11%	2,605,103	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican party hold exactly 45 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · 45	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	1,764,209	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican party hold exactly 46 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · 46	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,310,790	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican party hold exactly 54 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · 54	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,109,812	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican party hold exactly 55 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · 55	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,071,691	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican party hold exactly 47 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · 47	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	978,956	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican party hold exactly 53 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · 53	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	958,291	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican party hold exactly 52 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · 52	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	924,279	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican party hold exactly 48 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · 48	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	921,117	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican party hold exactly 51 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · 51	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	920,250	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican party hold exactly 49 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · 49	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	914,935	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican party hold exactly 50 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · 50	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	880,878	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican party hold more than 57 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · Above 57	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	635,959	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican party hold exactly 56 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · 56	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	608,073	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican party hold exactly 57 Senate seats in the 120th Congress? · 57	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	468,535	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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