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Highest daily view count this week on Kalshi
If Tate McRae has above 5M Global daily views on YouTube at any point during November 9, 2026 - November 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: YouTube Charts.
Market says (typical open contract)
52%
Median YES price across 434 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 52¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.68 | 53.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Taylor Swift have above 15.2M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 15.2M | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 23,432 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Future have above 8M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 8M | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 20,284 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Morgan Wallen have above 8M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 8M | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 16,812 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will NBA YoungBoy have above 9M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 9M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,568 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ariana Grande have above 18M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 18M | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 12,714 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tate McRae have above 3.7M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 3.7M | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 11,398 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ariana Grande have above 14M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 14M | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,012 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Morgan Wallen have above 7.75M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 7.75M | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 9,360 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ariana Grande have above 19.5M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 19.5M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,006 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will NBA YoungBoy have above 12M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 12M | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 8,484 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will KATSEYE have above 15M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 15M | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 8,130 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Post Malone have above 8M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 8M | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 8,025 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ariana Grande have above 16M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 16M | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 7,456 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ariana Grande have above 20M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 20M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,187 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo have above 8M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 8M | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 7,042 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Morgan Wallen have above 6M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 6M | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 6,894 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bad Bunny have above 31M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 31M | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,150 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Weeknd have above 18M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 18M | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,103 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake have above 15M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 15M | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 5,601 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Post Malone have above 5M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 5M | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,576 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 15.4M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 15.4M | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5,482 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Weeknd have above 20M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 20M | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 5,286 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ariana Grande have above 15.5M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 15.5M | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 5,221 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake have above 11.5M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 11.5M | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,196 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bad Bunny have above 32M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 32M | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 5,177 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will NBA YoungBoy have above 5M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 5M | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,003 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 15.1M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 15.1M | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 4,962 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kendrick Lamar have above 7.5M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 7.5M | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 4,842 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Future have above 6M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 6M | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 4,800 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ariana Grande have above 13M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 13M | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,794 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West have above 8M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 8M | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,504 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Morgan Wallen have above 7.25M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 7.25M | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 4,298 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake have above 12.75M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 12.75M | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 4,190 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 16M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 16M | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 4,157 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Future have above 6.5M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 6.5M | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 4,030 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ariana Grande have above 13.5M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 13.5M | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,909 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 14.9M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 14.9M | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 3,773 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tate McRae have above 4M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 4M | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,771 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 14.8M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 14.8M | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 3,584 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift have above 15M daily views at any point during November 2, 2026 - November 8, 2026? · Above 15M | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 3,550 | Nov 10, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 434 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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