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Will a Yosemite land deal with Kingsbarn be announced? on Kalshi

If the U.S. Department of the Interior or the U.S. National Park Service announces an agreement to transfer federal land within Yosemite National Park or an easement over that land to Kingsbarn Realty Capital or an entity it controls in exchange for land before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. National Park Service.

Market says (typical open contract)
40%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
79% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
40¢ (now)1.7¢$2.1041.7%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will a Yosemite land deal with Kingsbarn be announced before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 202740¢40%1.7¢—79%207Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will a Yosemite land deal with Kingsbarn be announced before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 202628¢28%1.4¢—55%60Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Will a Yosemite land deal with Kingsbarn be announced before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 202760¢60%1.7¢—81%5Apr 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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