Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Wyoming coal production on Kalshi
If Wyoming’s total coal production for calendar year 2026 is above 250 MMst, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
16% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wyoming’s total coal production for calendar year 2026 be above 220 MMst? · Above 220 MMst | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 55,318 | Apr 01, 15:29 UTC |
| Will Wyoming’s total coal production for calendar year 2026 be above 180 MMst? · Above 180 MMst | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 45,650 | Apr 01, 15:29 UTC |
| Will Wyoming’s total coal production for calendar year 2026 be above 210 MMst? · Above 210 MMst | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 34,081 | Apr 01, 15:29 UTC |
| Will Wyoming’s total coal production for calendar year 2026 be above 230 MMst? · Above 230 MMst | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 31,721 | Apr 01, 15:29 UTC |
| Will Wyoming’s total coal production for calendar year 2026 be above 250 MMst? · Above 250 MMst | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 28,552 | Apr 01, 15:29 UTC |
| Will Wyoming’s total coal production for calendar year 2026 be above 200 MMst? · Above 200 MMst | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 26,425 | Apr 01, 15:29 UTC |
| Will Wyoming’s total coal production for calendar year 2026 be above 190 MMst? · Above 190 MMst | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 24,838 | Apr 01, 15:29 UTC |
| Will Wyoming’s total coal production for calendar year 2026 be above 240 MMst? · Above 240 MMst | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 17,589 | Apr 01, 15:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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