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WTA Tennis Match on Kalshi
If Linda Noskova wins the Gauff vs Noskova professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Finals Women Singles Group A after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: WTA.
Market says (typical open contract)
60%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
80% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 60¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.40 | 61.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linda Noskova wins · Linda Noskova | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 883 | Nov 24, 21:10 UTC |
| Marta Kostyuk wins · Marta Kostyuk | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 734 | Nov 24, 20:00 UTC |
| Coco Gauff wins · Coco Gauff | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 728 | Nov 24, 21:10 UTC |
| Jessica Pegula wins · Jessica Pegula | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 159 | Nov 24, 20:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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