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Challenger WTA on Kalshi
If Valentina Mediorreal Arias wins the Carle vs Mediorreal Arias professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Challenger Sopo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: WTA.
Market says (typical open contract)
55%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
91% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 55¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.57 | 56.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Mediorreal Arias wins · Valentina Mediorreal Arias | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 608 | Nov 24, 17:20 UTC |
| Bianca Andreescu wins · Bianca Andreescu | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 353 | Nov 24, 16:10 UTC |
| Katrina Scott wins · Katrina Scott | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 267 | Nov 24, 16:10 UTC |
| Maria Carle wins · Maria Carle | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 195 | Nov 24, 17:20 UTC |
| Lucia Bronzetti wins · Lucia Bronzetti | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 110 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| Alice Tubello wins · Alice Tubello | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 98 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| Carolina Alves wins · Carolina Alves | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 68 | Nov 24, 17:20 UTC |
| Julieta Pareja wins · Julieta Pareja | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 34 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| Andrea Lazaro Garcia wins · Andrea Lazaro Garcia | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 30 | Nov 24, 16:10 UTC |
| Rebeka Masarova wins · Rebeka Masarova | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 26 | Nov 24, 16:10 UTC |
| Leyre Romero Gormaz wins · Leyre Romero Gormaz | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 23 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| Carole Monnet wins · Carole Monnet | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 14 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| Julia Riera wins · Julia Riera | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 14 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| Laura Samson wins · Laura Samson | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 9 | Nov 24, 17:20 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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