What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 48¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.80.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 50% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 48%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will the tariff on imported kitchen cabinets rise to 50%? on Kalshi

If the United States has in effect a Section 232 tariff of 50% on imports of wood kitchen cabinets and vanities after Issuance and before Jan 2, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, BBC News, Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, South China Morning Post, NBC, Axios, The Washington Post, CNN, Fox News, The Guardian, ABC News Australia, Semafor, Politico, MSNBC, CBC (Canada), Reuters, Federal Register, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

48%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

97% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
48¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.82	49.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has in effect a Section 232 tariff of 50% on imports of wood kitchen cabinets and vanities before Jan 2, 2027? · Yes	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	97%	0	Jan 02, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.