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WNBA Next Team on Kalshi
If Natasha Cloud's next team is the Washington Women's Pro Basketball team before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 160 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will be Caitlin Clark's next team? · Stays with Indiana | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 9,624 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| What will be Caitlin Clark's next team? · Los Angeles | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 7,845 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| What will be Caitlin Clark's next team? · Golden State | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,819 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| What will be Caitlin Clark's next team? · Chicago | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,376 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| What will be Caitlin Clark's next team? · Las Vegas | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,307 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| What will be Caitlin Clark's next team? · New York | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,700 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| What will be Caitlin Clark's next team? · Retires / No Team | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,544 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| What will be Caitlin Clark's next team? · Atlanta | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,378 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| What will be Caitlin Clark's next team? · Washington | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,038 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| What will be Caitlin Clark's next team? · Minnesota | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 809 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| What will be Caitlin Clark's next team? · Dallas | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 583 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| What will be Caitlin Clark's next team? · Phoenix | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 555 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| What will be Caitlin Clark's next team? · Toronto | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 433 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| What will be Caitlin Clark's next team? · Connecticut | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 358 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| What will be Caitlin Clark's next team? · Seattle | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 299 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| What will be Caitlin Clark's next team? · Portland | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 19 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Natasha Cloud's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Washington · Washington | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Natasha Cloud's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Toronto · Toronto | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Natasha Cloud's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Seattle · Seattle | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Natasha Cloud's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Phoenix · Phoenix | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Natasha Cloud's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Portland · Portland | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Natasha Cloud's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: New York · New York | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Natasha Cloud's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Retires / No Team · Retires / No Team | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Natasha Cloud's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Minnesota · Minnesota | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Natasha Cloud's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Las Vegas · Las Vegas | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Natasha Cloud's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Los Angeles · Los Angeles | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Natasha Cloud's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Indiana · Indiana | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Natasha Cloud's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Houston · Houston | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Natasha Cloud's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Golden State · Golden State | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Natasha Cloud's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Dallas · Dallas | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Natasha Cloud's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Chicago · Chicago | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Natasha Cloud's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Atlanta · Atlanta | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Napheesa Collier's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Washington · Washington | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Napheesa Collier's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Toronto · Toronto | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Napheesa Collier's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Seattle · Seattle | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Napheesa Collier's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Phoenix · Phoenix | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Napheesa Collier's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Portland · Portland | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Napheesa Collier's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: New York · New York | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Napheesa Collier's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Retires / No Team · Retires / No Team | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Napheesa Collier's Next Team Before May 1, 2027: Minnesota · Minnesota | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 160 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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