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how many weeks will album be number 1 on Kalshi
If Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spends at least 4 week(s) at the #1 position on the Billboard Hot 100 in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Billboard.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 33 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
17% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ICEMAN by Drake spend 5 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? · At least 5 weeks | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 125,890 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ICEMAN by Drake spend 6 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? · At least 6 weeks | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 45,682 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 30 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? · At least 30 weeks | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 30,909 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 27 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? · At least 27 weeks | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 29,864 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Dandelion by Ella Langley spend 4 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? · at least 4 weeks | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 19,041 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 31 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? · At least 31 weeks | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 18,913 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 28 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? · At least 28 weeks | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 17,606 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 29 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? · At least 29 weeks | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 12,387 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift spend 12 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? · At least 12 weeks | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 12,105 | Dec 26, 12:24 UTC |
| Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 36 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? · At least 36 weeks | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 10,450 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 33 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? · At least 33 weeks | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,568 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 32 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? · At least 32 weeks | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 6,429 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift spend 8 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? · At least 8 weeks | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 4,635 | Dec 26, 12:24 UTC |
| Will Patient Zero by Taylor Swift spend 4 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? · At least 4 weeks | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 4,513 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift spend 11 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? · At least 11 weeks | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 4,095 | Dec 26, 12:24 UTC |
| Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 34 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? · At least 34 weeks | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,095 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Dandelion by Ella Langley spend 5 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? · at least 5 weeks | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 3,068 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift spend 7 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? · At least 7 weeks | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 3,054 | Dec 26, 12:24 UTC |
| Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 2 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in November 2026? · At least 2 weeks | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,955 | Nov 28, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Wild by KATSEYE spend 2 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? · At least 2 weeks | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,834 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Wild by KATSEYE spend 3 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? · At least 3 weeks | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,352 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift spend 9 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? · At least 9 weeks | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 2,239 | Dec 26, 12:24 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift spend 10 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? · At least 10 weeks | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 2,161 | Dec 26, 12:24 UTC |
| Will Dandelion by Ella Langley spend 6 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? · at least 6 weeks | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,671 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Wild by KATSEYE spend 5 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? · At least 5 weeks | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,500 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 3 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in November 2026? · At least 3 weeks | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 1,310 | Nov 28, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 4 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in November 2026? · At least 4 weeks | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 1,176 | Nov 28, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Patient Zero by Taylor Swift spend 5 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? · At least 5 weeks | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,120 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift spend 9 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? · At least 9 weeks | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 996 | Dec 26, 12:24 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift spend 6 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? · At least 6 weeks | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 964 | Dec 26, 12:24 UTC |
| Will Wild by KATSEYE spend 6 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? · At least 6 weeks | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 600 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Wild by KATSEYE spend 4 weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026? · At least 4 weeks | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 500 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Choosin' Texas by Ella Langley spend 35 weeks at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? · At least 35 weeks | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 118 | Dec 26, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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