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World Cup Qualifiers on Kalshi
If Wales qualifies for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup main tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Sky Sports, Fox Sports, FIFA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
66%
Median YES price across 76 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
69% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 66¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $1.19 | 67.6% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cape Verde qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Cape Verde | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 1,424 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Greece qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Greece | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 1,414 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Slovenia qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Slovenia | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 519 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Mexico qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Mexico | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 461 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Albania qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Albania | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 379 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Japan qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Japan | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 274 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Italy | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 272 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will South Africa qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · South Africa | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 226 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Czechia qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Czechia | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 217 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Curacao qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Curacao | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 210 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Turkiye qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Turkiye | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 206 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Slovakia qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Slovakia | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 202 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will USA qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · USA | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 192 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Jordan qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Jordan | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 135 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Chile qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Chile | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 111 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Israel qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Israel | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 107 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Ukraine qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Ukraine | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 100 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Peru qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Peru | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 92 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Norway qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Norway | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 80 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Germany qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Germany | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 60 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will England qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · England | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 48 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Serbia qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Serbia | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 34 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Canada qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Canada | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 34 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Netherlands qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Netherlands | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 17% | 22 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Colombia qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Colombia | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 20 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Croatia qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Croatia | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 16 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Australia qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Australia | 91¢ | 91% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 12 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will France qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · France | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 10 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Brazil qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Brazil | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 10 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Denmark qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Denmark | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 10 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Sweden qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Sweden | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 7 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Ghana qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Ghana | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 7 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Senegal qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Senegal | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 7 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Northern Ireland qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Northern Ireland | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 6 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will IR Iran qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · IR Iran | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 5 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Finland qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Finland | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 5 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Egypt qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Egypt | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 3 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Algeria qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Algeria | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 3 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Austria qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Austria | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 3 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Hungary qualify for the 2030 Men's FIFA World Cup? · Hungary | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 2 | Jan 15, 03:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 76 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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