What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.49.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 0% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

World Cup on Kalshi

If Wales is the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: FIFA, ESPN.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 82 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

0% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Spain win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Spain	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	251,876	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will France win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · France	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	25%	71,223	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Argentina win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Argentina	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	61,393	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Mexico win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Mexico	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	50,220	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will USA win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · USA	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	42,308	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Germany win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Germany	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	34,270	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Italy win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Italy	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	28,365	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Qatar win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Qatar	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	24,677	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Norway win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Norway	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	24,293	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Ivory Coast win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Ivory Coast	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	23,452	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Portugal win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Portugal	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	22,058	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will England win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · England	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	21,774	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Morocco win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Morocco	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	20,211	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Senegal win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Senegal	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	18,511	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Japan win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Japan	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	18,126	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Brazil win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Brazil	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	17,233	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Congo DR win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Congo DR	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	16,726	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Venezuela win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Venezuela	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	14,123	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Egypt win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Egypt	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	13,517	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Paraguay win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Paraguay	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	13,125	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Croatia win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Croatia	1¢	1%	0.0¢	—	1%	12,826	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Uruguay win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Uruguay	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	12,803	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will South Africa win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · South Africa	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	12,792	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Korea Republic win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Korea Republic	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	12,658	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Cape Verde win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Cape Verde	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	12,381	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Algeria win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Algeria	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	11,491	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Colombia win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Colombia	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	11,113	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Greece win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Greece	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	10,789	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Belgium win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Belgium	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	3%	9,088	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Ghana win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Ghana	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	9,020	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Jordan win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Jordan	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	8,500	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Switzerland win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Switzerland	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	8,405	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Ireland win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Ireland	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	7,366	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Ukraine win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Ukraine	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	5,975	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Nigeria win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Nigeria	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	5,671	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Iceland win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Iceland	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	5,079	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Netherlands win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Netherlands	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	4,115	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Canada win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Canada	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	3,725	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Burkina Faso win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Burkina Faso	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	3,583	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Ecuador win the 2030 FIFA Men's World Cup? · Ecuador	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	2,894	Jan 15, 03:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 82 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.