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Boxing Lightweight Title on Kalshi
If William Zepeda holds the WBC Lightweight Title on Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports, WBC Boxing.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will hold the WBC Lightweight Title on January 1, 2027? · William Zepeda | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 594 | Jan 01, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will hold the WBC Lightweight Title on January 1, 2027? · Abdullah Mason | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 523 | Jan 01, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will hold the WBC Lightweight Title on January 1, 2027? · Alan Chaves | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 485 | Jan 01, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will hold the WBC Lightweight Title on January 1, 2027? · Bakhodur Usmanov | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 448 | Jan 01, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will hold the WBC Lightweight Title on January 1, 2027? · Jordan White | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 224 | Jan 01, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will hold the WBC Lightweight Title on January 1, 2027? · Lamont Roach | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 205 | Jan 01, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will hold the WBC Lightweight Title on January 1, 2027? · Lucas Bahdi | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 107 | Jan 01, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will hold the WBC Lightweight Title on January 1, 2027? · Joe Cordina | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 101 | Jan 01, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will hold the WBC Lightweight Title on January 1, 2027? · Title is vacant | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 54 | Jan 01, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will hold the WBC Lightweight Title on January 1, 2027? · Justin Pauldo | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 54 | Jan 01, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will hold the WBC Lightweight Title on January 1, 2027? · Sam Noakes | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 54 | Jan 01, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will hold the WBC Lightweight Title on January 1, 2027? · Jadier Herrera | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 54 | Jan 01, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will hold the WBC Lightweight Title on January 1, 2027? · Andy Cruz | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 54 | Jan 01, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will hold the WBC Lightweight Title on January 1, 2027? · Dzmitry Asanau | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 54 | Jan 01, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will hold the WBC Lightweight Title on January 1, 2027? · Shu Utsuki | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 53 | Jan 01, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will hold the WBC Lightweight Title on January 1, 2027? · Ricardo Nunez | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 52 | Jan 01, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will hold the WBC Lightweight Title on January 1, 2027? · Raymond Muratalla | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 52 | Jan 01, 17:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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