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Waymo new city on Kalshi
If Waymo is operating commercial autonomous vehicle ride-hailing services available to the general public within Toronto, Canada before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Waymo.
Market says (typical open contract)
16%
Median YES price across 37 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
33% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.94 | 16.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Denver, CO before Jan 1, 2027? · Denver, CO | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 166,171 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Washington, DC before Jan 1, 2027? · Washington, DC | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 47,509 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Detroit, MI before Jan 1, 2027? · Detroit, MI | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 46,385 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Sacramento, CA before Jan 1, 2027? · Sacramento, CA | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 32,579 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Seattle, WA before Jan 1, 2027? · Seattle, WA | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 26,735 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Las Vegas, NV before Jan 1, 2027? · Las Vegas, NV | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 25,602 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Portland, OR before Jan 1, 2027? · Portland, OR | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 23,827 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in New Orleans, LA before Jan 1, 2027? · New Orleans, LA | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 21,284 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in St. Louis, MO before Jan 1, 2027? · St. Louis, MO | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 12,504 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Minneapolis, MN before Jan 1, 2027? · Minneapolis, MN | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 11,083 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Baltimore, MD before Jan 1, 2027? · Baltimore, MD | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 10,497 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Charlotte, NC before Jan 1, 2027? · Charlotte, NC | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 9,284 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in New York, NY before Jan 1, 2027? · New York, NY | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 9,095 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in London, UK before Jan 1, 2027? · London, UK | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8,595 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Chicago, IL before Jan 1, 2027? · Chicago, IL | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 8,431 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Philadelphia, PA before Jan 1, 2027? · Philadelphia, PA | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8,427 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Tokyo, Japan before Jan 1, 2027? · Tokyo, Japan | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 4,762 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Boston, MA before Jan 1, 2027? · Boston, MA | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,365 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Pittsburgh, PA before Jan 1, 2027? · Pittsburgh, PA | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,333 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Sacramento, CA before Jan 1, 2028? · Sacramento, CA | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 936 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Charlotte, NC before Jan 1, 2028? · Charlotte, NC | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 700 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Portland, OR before Jan 1, 2028? · Portland, OR | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 534 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Detroit, MI before Jan 1, 2028? · Detroit, MI | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 448 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Chicago, IL before Jan 1, 2028? · Chicago, IL | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 400 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Philadelphia, PA before Jan 1, 2028? · Philadelphia, PA | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 363 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Seattle, WA before Jan 1, 2028? · Seattle, WA | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 109 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in London, UK before Jan 1, 2028? · London, UK | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 12 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Boston, MA before Jan 1, 2028? · Boston, MA | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 1 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Toronto, Canada before Jan 1, 2028? · Toronto, Canada | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Tokyo, Japan before Jan 1, 2028? · Tokyo, Japan | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in St. Louis, MO before Jan 1, 2028? · St. Louis, MO | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Pittsburgh, PA before Jan 1, 2028? · Pittsburgh, PA | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in New York, NY before Jan 1, 2028? · New York, NY | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in New Orleans, LA before Jan 1, 2028? · New Orleans, LA | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Minneapolis, MN before Jan 1, 2028? · Minneapolis, MN | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Washington, DC before Jan 1, 2028? · Washington, DC | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Baltimore, MD before Jan 1, 2028? · Baltimore, MD | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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