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Russia VTB United Spread on Kalshi
If MBA Moscow wins by more than 6.5 points in the Avtodor Saratov vs MBA Moscow men's professional Russia VTB United basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026 at 11:00 AM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: 365 Scores, Sofascore, Flashscore.
Market says (typical open contract)
43%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
86% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 43¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.00 | 44.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avtodor Saratov wins by over 22.5 points · Avtodor Saratov wins by over 22.5 points | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 199 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| Avtodor Saratov wins by over 18.5 points · Avtodor Saratov wins by over 18.5 points | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 199 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| MBA Moscow wins by over 6.5 points · MBA Moscow wins by over 6.5 points | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| MBA Moscow wins by over 2.5 points · MBA Moscow wins by over 2.5 points | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| MBA Moscow wins by over 22.5 points · MBA Moscow wins by over 22.5 points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| MBA Moscow wins by over 18.5 points · MBA Moscow wins by over 18.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| MBA Moscow wins by over 14.5 points · MBA Moscow wins by over 14.5 points | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| MBA Moscow wins by over 10.5 points · MBA Moscow wins by over 10.5 points | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| Avtodor Saratov wins by over 6.5 points · Avtodor Saratov wins by over 6.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| Avtodor Saratov wins by over 2.5 points · Avtodor Saratov wins by over 2.5 points | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| Avtodor Saratov wins by over 14.5 points · Avtodor Saratov wins by over 14.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| Avtodor Saratov wins by over 10.5 points · Avtodor Saratov wins by over 10.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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