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Russia VTB United Game on Kalshi
If Zenit Saint Petersburg wins the BC Samara vs Zenit Saint Petersburg men's professional Russia VTB United basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: 365 Scores, Sofascore, Flashscore.
Market says (typical open contract)
70%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
60% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MBA Moscow wins · MBA Moscow | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 24,844 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| Avtodor Saratov wins · Avtodor Saratov | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 357 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| Zenit Saint Petersburg wins · Zenit Saint Petersburg | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 322 | Nov 13, 16:30 UTC |
| Dinamo Vladivostok wins · Dinamo Vladivostok | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 188 | Nov 13, 16:00 UTC |
| CSKA Moscow wins · CSKA Moscow | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 161 | Nov 13, 16:00 UTC |
| BC Samara wins · BC Samara | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 13, 16:30 UTC |
| BC Uniks Kazan wins · BC Uniks Kazan | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 13, 14:30 UTC |
| Parma Permsky Kray wins · Parma Permsky Kray | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 13, 14:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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