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Will the House vote on a resolution to expel Ilhan Omar? on Kalshi
If the House has conducted any recorded vote on any resolution providing for the expulsion of Representative Ilhan Omar (D-MN) from the United States House of Representatives, any motion to table, refer, or postpone such a resolution, or any special rule that specifically refers to such a resolution after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: United States House of Representatives, Congressional Record.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the House vote on a resolution to expel Ilhan Omar? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 2,109 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the House vote on a resolution to expel Ilhan Omar? · Before Jul 1, 2027 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 1,489 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the House vote on a resolution to expel Ilhan Omar? · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,239 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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