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County vote percentages on Kalshi
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Starr County, Texas is 68% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: official government website of <geography>.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 482 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Ossoff receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Cobb County, Georgia? · At least 56% | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,558 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 62% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Harris County, Texas? · At least 62% | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 7,490 | Nov 03, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 68% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Webb County, Texas? · At least 68% | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 7,371 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 66% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Bexar County, Texas? · At least 66% | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 6,725 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Tarrant County, Texas? · At least 48% | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 6,084 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Shapiro receive at least 88% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania? · At least 88% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 5,016 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sherrod Brown receive at least 62% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Lucas County, Ohio? · At least 62% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 4,570 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 68% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Dallas County, Texas? · At least 68% | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 4,566 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sherrod Brown receive at least 70% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Franklin County, Ohio? · At least 70% | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 4,371 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Turek receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Linn County, Iowa? · At least 60% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 4,112 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Hidalgo County, Texas? · At least 58% | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 4,047 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 72% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Dallas County, Texas? · At least 72% | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 4,008 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 66% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Webb County, Texas? · At least 66% | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 3,954 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Genesee County, Michigan? · At least 52% | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 3,930 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Webb County, Texas? · At least 60% | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 3,799 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Starr County, Texas? · At least 50% | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,750 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Turek receive at least 70% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Johnson County, Iowa? · At least 70% | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 3,693 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Starr County, Texas? · At least 52% | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 3,677 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 62% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Bexar County, Texas? · At least 62% | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 3,624 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Oakland County, Michigan? · At least 60% | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 3,516 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sherrod Brown receive at least 64% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Hamilton County, Ohio? · At least 64% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 3,516 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will David Crowley receive at least 76% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Dane County, Wisconsin? · At least 76% | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 3,514 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Rogers receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Macomb County, Michigan? · At least 48% | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 3,478 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 64% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Webb County, Texas? · At least 64% | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 3,398 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Oakland County, Michigan? · At least 58% | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 3,236 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 68% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Starr County, Texas? · At least 68% | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 2,984 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff receive at least 78% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Fulton County, Georgia? · At least 78% | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 2,949 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will David Jolly receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Palm Beach County, Florida? · At least 48% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 2,603 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 80% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Travis County, Texas? · At least 80% | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 2,602 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sherrod Brown receive at least 72% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Franklin County, Ohio? · At least 72% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,581 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 51% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Collin County, Texas? · At least 51% | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 2,464 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Aaron Ford receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Clark County, Nevada? · At least 56% | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 2,443 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff receive at least 66% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Gwinnett County, Georgia? · At least 66% | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 2,404 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Tarrant County, Texas? · At least 50% | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 2,397 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed receive at least 72% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Washtenaw County, Michigan? · At least 72% | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 2,345 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 66% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Los Angeles County, California? · At least 66% | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 2,305 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will JB Pritzker receive at least 72% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Cook County, Illinois? · At least 72% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 2,293 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 70% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Dallas County, Texas? · At least 70% | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 2,246 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico receive at least 68% of the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Hidalgo County, Texas? · At least 68% | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 2,237 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will David Crowley receive at least 68% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin? · At least 68% | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 2,188 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 482 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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