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who will be on the cover of Vogue on Kalshi
If it is announced that Zoë Kravitz is on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Washington Post, Game Informer, Stereogum, official website of media, Kotaku, NME, GameSpot, Polygon, Fox News, media and its parent company or publisher, verified social media accounts of the cover subject(s) or creator(s), MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Rolling Stone, The Hollywood Reporter, Semafor, The Information, Publishers Weekly, Entertainment Weekly, official social media accounts of media, NBC, Spin, Pitchfork, Reuters, Axios, the New York Times, IGN, ABC News, Variety, CNN, Bloomberg News, Billboard, the Associated Press, Media Week, Politico, CBS.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ariana Grande be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Ariana Grande | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,564 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Taylor Swift | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 2,712 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nicole Kidman be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Nicole Kidman | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 1,912 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lady Gaga be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Lady Gaga | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 1,741 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zoë Kravitz be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Zoë Kravitz | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 1,696 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sabrina Carpenter be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Sabrina Carpenter | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,579 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Miley Cyrus be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Miley Cyrus | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,556 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jennie be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Jennie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,424 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will A’ja Wilson be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · A’ja Wilson | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 1,303 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Florence Pugh be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Florence Pugh | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,269 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Margot Robbie be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Margot Robbie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,120 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bella Hadid be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Bella Hadid | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,114 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hailey Bieber be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Hailey Bieber | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 1,035 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dua Lipa be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Dua Lipa | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 930 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rihanna be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Rihanna | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 871 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Beyoncé be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Beyoncé | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 346 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Teyana Taylor be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Teyana Taylor | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 271 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alex Consani be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Alex Consani | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 172 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charli xcx be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Charli xcx | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 78 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tyla be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Tyla | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 36 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pamela Anderson be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Pamela Anderson | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 28 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jenna Ortega be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Jenna Ortega | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 28 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Coco Gauff be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Coco Gauff | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 13 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kendall Jenner be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Kendall Jenner | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 5 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Venus Williams be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Venus Williams | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sydney Sweeney be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Sydney Sweeney | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Selena Gomez be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Selena Gomez | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jennifer Lawrence be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Jennifer Lawrence | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chappell Roan be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Chappell Roan | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Billie Eilish be on the cover of any issue of Vogue (US) published in 2026? · Billie Eilish | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 30, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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