Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Verona mayoral election winner on Kalshi
If the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Democratic Party (PD) wins the 2027 Verona mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Italian Ministry of the Interior.
Market says (typical open contract)
36%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
72% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 36¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.24 | 37.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes the Democratic Party (PD) win the 2027 Verona mayoral election? · Center-left | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Jun 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Futuro Nazionale (FN) but not FdI or FI win the 2027 Verona mayoral election? · Futuro Nazionale | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jun 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Forza Italia (FI) but not FdI win the 2027 Verona mayoral election? · Forza Italia | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jun 12, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the candidate of the registered coalition that includes Brothers of Italy (FdI) win the 2027 Verona mayoral election? · Center-right | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Jun 12, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.