What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 20¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.80.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 21% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 20%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

WHO WILL PERFORM AT THE SPHERE on Kalshi

If Kanye West (Ye) performs at the Las Vegas Sphere in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Deadline, ABC, The Source Agencies are, Associated Press, <person>, in hierarchical order, official social media accounts of confirmed performers at <venue> in the same <time period> as <person>, Fox, Variety, Entertainment Weekly, CBS, social media accounts of event organizers at <venue>, NBC, Rolling Stone, the official broadcaster of the event at <venue>, CNN, social media accounts, official <venue> website, Billboard, Reuters, The Hollywood Reporter, the official website.

Market says (typical open contract)

20%

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

40% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
20¢ (now)	1.1¢	$2.80	21.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Coldplay perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027? · Coldplay	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	59%	10,332	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Spice Girls perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027? · Spice Girls	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	57%	8,647	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Travis Scott perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027? · Travis Scott	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	52%	8,438	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Taylor Swift perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027? · Taylor Swift	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	43%	7,887	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will U2 perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027? · U2	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	40%	7,569	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Beyoncé perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027? · Beyoncé	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	6,555	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Bad Bunny perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027? · Bad Bunny	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	5,746	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Fred again.. perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027? · Fred again..	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	5,135	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Kanye West (Ye) perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027? · Kanye West (Ye)	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	3,469	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will The Weeknd perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027? · The Weeknd	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	35%	3,262	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Drake perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027? · Drake	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	3,246	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC
Will Jay-Z perform at Las Vegas Sphere 2027? · Jay-Z	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	1,852	Jan 08, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.