What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 11¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.12.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 12% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 11%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Oil companies starting Venezuelan production on Kalshi

If Shell signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the New York Times, ABC, Fox News, The Information, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, CBS, NBC, Axios, The Washington Post, CNN, Reuters, Semafor, the Associated Press, Politico.

Market says (typical open contract)

11%

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

22% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
11¢ (now)	0.7¢	$3.12	11.7%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will it be confirmed that Shell signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela? · Shell	58¢	58%	1.7¢	—	83%	2,667	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be confirmed that ExxonMobil signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela? · ExxonMobil	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	21%	1,547	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be confirmed that ConocoPhillips signs, itself or through a controlled affiliate, a binding agreement after Issuance granting it an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela? · ConocoPhillips	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	165	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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