What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.43.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 2% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? on Kalshi

If Vladimir Padrino López de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Bloomberg, Agence France-Presse, New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

4% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
2¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.43	2.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? · Delcy Rodríguez	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	16,175	Jan 02, 04:59 UTC
Will María Corina Machado de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? · María Corina Machado	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	5,213	Jan 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Edmundo González Urrutia de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? · Edmundo González Urrutia	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	3,140	Jan 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Nicolás Maduro de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? · Nicolás Maduro	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	3,133	Jan 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Jorge Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? · Jorge Rodríguez	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	2,711	Jan 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Diosdado Cabello de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? · Diosdado Cabello	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,693	Jan 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Gustavo González López de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? · Gustavo González López	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,650	Jan 02, 04:59 UTC
Will Vladimir Padrino López de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? · Vladimir Padrino López	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	2,645	Jan 02, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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