What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 40¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.10.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 42% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 40%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

Foreign U.S. Treasury holdings increase on Kalshi

If the U.S. Treasury securities holdings reported for United Kingdom for December 2026 are above the holdings reported for United Kingdom for December 2025 in the same first non-preliminary edition of Table 5 that contains December 2026 data, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Market says (typical open contract)

40%

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

80% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
40¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.10	41.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Mainland China's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026? · Mainland China	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	8,917	Feb 18, 20:55 UTC
Will the United Kingdom's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026? · United Kingdom	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	31%	2,495	Feb 18, 20:55 UTC
Will Japan's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026? · Japan	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	1,708	Feb 18, 20:55 UTC
Will India's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026? · India	61¢	61%	1.7¢	—	78%	1,261	Feb 18, 20:55 UTC
Will Norway's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026? · Norway	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	80%	403	Feb 18, 20:55 UTC
Will South Korea's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026? · South Korea	33¢	33%	1.5¢	—	66%	302	Feb 18, 20:55 UTC
Will Saudi Arabia's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026? · Saudi Arabia	35¢	35%	1.6¢	—	70%	170	Feb 18, 20:55 UTC
Will Canada's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026? · Canada	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	81%	88	Feb 18, 20:55 UTC
Will Taiwan's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026? · Taiwan	33¢	33%	1.5¢	—	66%	75	Feb 18, 20:55 UTC
Will Brazil's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026? · Brazil	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	80%	65	Feb 18, 20:55 UTC
Will France's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026? · France	61¢	61%	1.7¢	—	78%	27	Feb 18, 20:55 UTC
Will the UAE's U.S. Treasury holdings increase in 2026? · UAE	82¢	82%	1.1¢	—	37%	1	Feb 18, 20:55 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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