Markets › Kalshi › Economics
United States ISM Services PMI on Kalshi
If US ISM Services PMI for November 2026 is above 56 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Trading Economics.
Market says (typical open contract)
57%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
86% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 57¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.51 | 58.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US ISM Services PMI for November 2026 be above 56.00? · Above 56.00 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Dec 03, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US ISM Services PMI for November 2026 be above 55.80? · Above 55.80 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Dec 03, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US ISM Services PMI for November 2026 be above 55.60? · Above 55.60 | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Dec 03, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US ISM Services PMI for November 2026 be above 55.40? · Above 55.40 | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Dec 03, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US ISM Services PMI for November 2026 be above 55.20? · Above 55.20 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Dec 03, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US ISM Services PMI for November 2026 be above 55.00? · Above 55.00 | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Dec 03, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US ISM Services PMI for November 2026 be above 54.80? · Above 54.80 | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Dec 03, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US ISM Services PMI for November 2026 be above 54.60? · Above 54.60 | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Dec 03, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US ISM Services PMI for November 2026 be above 54.40? · Above 54.40 | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Dec 03, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US ISM Services PMI for November 2026 be above 54.20? · Above 54.20 | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Dec 03, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US ISM Services PMI for November 2026 be above 54.00? · Above 54.00 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Dec 03, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US ISM Services PMI for November 2026 be above 53.80? · Above 53.80 | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Dec 03, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US ISM Services PMI for November 2026 be above 53.60? · Above 53.60 | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Dec 03, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US ISM Services PMI for November 2026 be above 53.40? · Above 53.40 | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Dec 03, 14:59 UTC |
| Will US ISM Services PMI for November 2026 be above 53.20? · Above 53.20 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Dec 03, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.