What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 68¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.12.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 70% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 68%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

USDT reserve share in direct U.S. Treasury Bills above [X]% on Kalshi

If the percentage obtained by dividing the amount listed as “U.S. Treasury Bills” by Total Reserves in Tether International, S.A. de C.V.’s reserve report for December 31, 2026 is above 70.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.

Market says (typical open contract)

68%

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

64% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
68¢ (now)	1.5¢	$1.12	69.5%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 64.0%? · Above 64.0%	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	96%	4,451	Feb 28, 13:29 UTC
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 58.0%? · Above 58.0%	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	16%	3,371	Feb 28, 13:29 UTC
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 60.0%? · Above 60.0%	85¢	85%	0.9¢	—	30%	2,253	Feb 28, 13:29 UTC
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 62.0%? · Above 62.0%	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	64%	1,195	Feb 28, 13:29 UTC
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 70.0%? · Above 70.0%	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	743	Feb 28, 13:29 UTC
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 66.0%? · Above 66.0%	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	272	Feb 28, 13:29 UTC
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 56.0%? · Above 56.0%	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	148	Feb 28, 13:29 UTC
Will percentage of USDT reserves held in U.S. Treasury Bills at the end of 2026 be above 68.0%? · Above 68.0%	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	20	Feb 28, 13:29 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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