Markets › Kalshi › Financials
USD/JPY after economic events on Kalshi
If the USD/JPY exchange rate published by Pyth Network is above 161.00 at Dec 10, 2026 at 9:30am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - USDJPY.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 210 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USD/JPY be above 161.00 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 161.00 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 160.75 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 160.75 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 160.50 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 160.50 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 160.25 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 160.25 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 160.00 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 160.00 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 159.75 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 159.75 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 159.50 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 159.50 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 159.25 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 159.25 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 159.00 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 159.00 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 158.75 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 158.75 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 158.50 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 158.50 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 158.25 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 158.25 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 158.00 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 158.00 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 157.75 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 157.75 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 157.50 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 157.50 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 157.25 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 157.25 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 157.00 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 157.00 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 156.75 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 156.75 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 156.50 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 156.50 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 156.25 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 156.25 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 156.00 on Dec 10 at 9:30am ET? · Above 156.00 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 10, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 161.00 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 161.00 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 160.75 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 160.75 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 160.50 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 160.50 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 160.25 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 160.25 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 160.00 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 160.00 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 159.75 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 159.75 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 159.50 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 159.50 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 159.25 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 159.25 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 159.00 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 159.00 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 158.75 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 158.75 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 158.50 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 158.50 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 158.25 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 158.25 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 158.00 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 158.00 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 157.75 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 157.75 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 157.50 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 157.50 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 157.25 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 157.25 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 157.00 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 157.00 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 156.75 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 156.75 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
| Will USD/JPY be above 156.50 on Nov 26 at 7:30pm ET? · Above 156.50 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 27, 00:30 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 210 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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