Markets › Kalshi › Financials
USDCHF Weekly on Kalshi
If the value of the USDCHF opening candlestick is Above 0.837 at 5pm ET on Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - USDCHF.
Market says (typical open contract)
61%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
78% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 61¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.37 | 62.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.823 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.823 | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 2 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.821 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.821 | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 2 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.837 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.837 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.835 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.835 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.833 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.833 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.831 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.831 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.829 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.829 | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.827 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.827 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.825 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.825 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.819 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.819 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.817 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.817 | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.815 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.815 | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.813 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.813 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.811 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.811 | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.809 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.809 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.807 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.807 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.805 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.805 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.803 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.803 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.801 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.801 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
| Will USDCHF be Above 0.799 at 5pm ET on Nov 13? · Above 0.799 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 13, 22:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.