Markets › Kalshi › Financials
USD/CAD after economic events on Kalshi
If the USD/CAD exchange rate published by Pyth Network is above 1.4375 at Nov 30, 2026 at 9:30am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - USDCAD.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 168 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4375 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4375 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4350 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4350 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4325 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4325 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4300 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4300 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4275 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4275 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4250 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4250 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4225 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4225 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4200 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4200 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4175 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4175 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4150 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4150 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4125 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4125 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4100 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4100 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4075 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4075 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4050 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4050 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4025 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4025 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4000 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.3975 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.3975 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.3950 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.3950 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.3925 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.3925 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.3900 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.3900 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.3875 on Nov 30 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.3875 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 30, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4375 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4375 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4350 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4350 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4325 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4325 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4300 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4300 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4275 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4275 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4250 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4250 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4225 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4225 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4200 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4200 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4175 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4175 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4150 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4150 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4125 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4125 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4100 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4100 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4075 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4075 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4050 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4050 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4025 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4025 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.4000 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.4000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.3975 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.3975 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.3950 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.3950 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
| Will USD/CAD be above 1.3925 on Nov 20 at 9:30am ET? · Above 1.3925 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 20, 14:30 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 168 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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