Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Uttar Pradesh Assembly election on Kalshi
If SP-Congress alliance wins the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Election Commission of India.
Market says (typical open contract)
21%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
42% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.77 | 22.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bahujan Samaj Party win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election? · Bahujan Samaj Party | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,222 | May 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election? · BJP-led NDA | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 608 | May 21, 14:00 UTC |
| Will SP-Congress alliance win the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election? · SP-Congress alliance | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 157 | May 21, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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