What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 1¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.47.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 1%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Next UN Secretary-General on Kalshi

If Viktor Orbán is confirmed as Secretary-General for UN before Jan 5, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Washington Post, ESPN, NBC, TechCrunch, The Information, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Wired, Semafor, the Associated Press, The Athletic, company/organization, CNN, Fox News, Reuters, Axios,  The New York Times, Politico, ABC, CBS, Bloomberg News.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

2% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? · Rebeca Grynspan	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	59%	36,794	Jan 05, 15:00 UTC
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? · Rafael Grossi	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	35,792	Jan 05, 15:00 UTC
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? · Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	15,316	Jan 05, 15:00 UTC
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? · Lana Nusseibeh	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	14,255	Jan 05, 15:00 UTC
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? · Michelle Bachelet	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	10,372	Jan 05, 15:00 UTC
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? · Viktor Orbán	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	8,426	Jan 05, 15:00 UTC
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? · Nickolay Mladenov	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	6,202	Jan 05, 15:00 UTC
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? · Amina J. Mohammed	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	5,019	Jan 05, 15:00 UTC
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? · Mia Mottley	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	3,132	Jan 05, 15:00 UTC
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? · Sigrid Kaag	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,457	Jan 05, 15:00 UTC
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? · Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,351	Jan 05, 15:00 UTC
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? · Alicia Bárcena	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,030	Jan 05, 15:00 UTC
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? · Ivonne A-Baki	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	801	Jan 05, 15:00 UTC
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? · Feridun Hadi Sinirlioğlu	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	499	Jan 05, 15:00 UTC
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? · Gianni Infantino	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	463	Jan 05, 15:00 UTC
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? · Olara Otunnu	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	278	Jan 05, 15:00 UTC
Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? · Macky Sall	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	195	Jan 05, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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