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UK Cabinet departures on Kalshi
If Yvette Cooper is the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: BBC, The Prime Minister's Office.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 23 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alan Campbell be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Alan Campbell | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 3,622 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Alex Norris be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Alex Norris | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,404 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Wes Streeting be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Wes Streeting | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,400 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anneliese Midgley be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Anneliese Midgley | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,300 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Shabana Mahmood be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Shabana Mahmood | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,200 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Pat McFadden be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Pat McFadden | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,200 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Ed Miliband be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Ed Miliband | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,141 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Yvette Cooper be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Yvette Cooper | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,000 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Stephen Kinnock be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Stephen Kinnock | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,000 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Louise Haigh be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Louise Haigh | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,000 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Indeterminate be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Indeterminate | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,000 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Douglas Alexander be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Douglas Alexander | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,000 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Baroness Smith of Basildon be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Angela Smith | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,000 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Angela Rayner be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Angela Rayner | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,000 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Angela Eagle be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Angela Eagle | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 2,000 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Heidi Alexander be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Heidi Alexander | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,571 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lucy Powell be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Lucy Powell | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,301 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lisa Nandy be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Lisa Nandy | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,235 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jonathan Reynolds be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Jonathan Reynolds | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,060 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Miatta Fahnbulleh be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Miatta Fahnbulleh | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,042 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will John Healey be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · John Healey | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 1,005 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Chris Bryant be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Chris Bryant | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,000 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Bridget Phillipson be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? · Bridget Phillipson | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,000 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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