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UFC Title Holder on Kalshi
If Yan Xiaonan is the UFC Women's Strawweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: MMA Fighting, Fox Sports, ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 121 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski to be Featherweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Alexander Volkanovski | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 10,923 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Michael Morales to be Welterweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Michael Morales | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 5,411 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Arman Tsarukyan to be Lightweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Arman Tsarukyan | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 5,245 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Mauricio Ruffy to be Lightweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Mauricio Ruffy | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,943 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Paddy Pimblett to be Lightweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Paddy Pimblett | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 3,939 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Josh Hokit to be Heavyweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Josh Hokit | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 3,858 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Alexa Grasso to be Women's Flyweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2026 · Alexa Grasso | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 3,285 | Dec 31, 17:00 UTC |
| Movsar Evloev to be Featherweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Movsar Evloev | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 3,240 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Sean O'Malley to be Bantamweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Sean O'Malley | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 3,008 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Carlos Prates to be Welterweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Carlos Prates | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 2,470 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Ciryl Gane to be Heavyweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Ciryl Gane | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 2,336 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Joshua Van to be Flyweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Joshua Van | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 2,225 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Amanda Nunes to be Women's Bantamweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2026 · Amanda Nunes | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 2,082 | Dec 31, 17:00 UTC |
| Jean Silva to be Featherweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Jean Silva | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 1,929 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Justin Gaethje to be Lightweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Justin Gaethje | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,889 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Natalia Silva to be Women's Flyweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2026 · Natalia Silva | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,598 | Dec 31, 17:00 UTC |
| Mackenzie Dern to be Women's Strawweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2026 · Mackenzie Dern | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,597 | Dec 31, 17:00 UTC |
| Song Yadong to be Bantamweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Song Yadong | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 1,555 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Petr Yan to be Bantamweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Petr Yan | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,492 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Belal Muhammad to be Welterweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Belal Muhammad | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,437 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Ilia Topuria to be Lightweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Ilia Topuria | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 1,383 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Payton Talbott to be Bantamweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Payton Talbott | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1,373 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Carlos Ulberg to be Light Heavyweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Carlos Ulberg | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 1,357 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Islam Makhachev to be Welterweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Islam Makhachev | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 1,222 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Sean Strickland to be Middleweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Sean Strickland | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 1,191 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Wang Cong to be Women's Flyweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2026 · Wang Cong | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,115 | Dec 31, 17:00 UTC |
| Ian Machado Garry to be Welterweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Ian Machado Garry | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 1,113 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Alex Pereira to be Heavyweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Alex Pereira | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 982 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Merab Dvalishvili to be Bantamweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Merab Dvalishvili | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 925 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Aleksandar Rakić to be Light Heavyweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Aleksandar Rakić | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 829 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Islam Makhachev to be Lightweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Islam Makhachev | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 585 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Dricus Du Plessis to be Middleweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Dricus Du Plessis | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 556 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Alexandre Pantoja to be Flyweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Alexandre Pantoja | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 542 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Cory Sandhagen to be Bantamweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Cory Sandhagen | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 536 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Alexia Thainara to be Women's Strawweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2026 · Alexia Thainara | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 520 | Dec 31, 17:00 UTC |
| Kai Kara-France to be Flyweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Kai Kara-France | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 478 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Jamahal Hill to be Light Heavyweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Jamahal Hill | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 427 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Tom Aspinall to be Heavyweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Tom Aspinall | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 393 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Deiveson Figueiredo to be Bantamweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Deiveson Figueiredo | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 360 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
| Jan Błachowicz to be Light Heavyweight Title holder on Dec 31, 2027 · Jan Błachowicz | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 349 | Dec 31, 19:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 121 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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