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UFC Middleweight Title on Kalshi
If Sean Strickland is the UFC Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: MMA Fighting, Fox Sports, ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will be the Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Sean Strickland | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 116,143 | Dec 31, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will be the Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Khamzat Chimaev | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 92,915 | Dec 31, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will be the Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Nassourdine Imavov | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 53,141 | Dec 31, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will be the Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Dricus Du Plessis | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 34,759 | Dec 31, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will be the Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Anthony Hernandez | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 18,424 | Dec 31, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will be the Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Caio Borralho | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,571 | Dec 31, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will be the Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Reinier de Ridder | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,282 | Dec 31, 17:00 UTC |
| Who will be the Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? · Israel Adesanya | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,999 | Dec 31, 17:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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