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UEFA Nations League Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Hungary vs Northern Ireland professional UEFA Nations League soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 17, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
29%
Median YES price across 156 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
57% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $2.49 | 30.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium wins · Belgium | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 187,217 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| France wins · France | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 157,532 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Spain wins · Spain | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 63,909 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| England wins · England | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 62,304 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 25,642 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Czechia wins · Czechia | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 24,050 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Croatia wins · Croatia | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 23,967 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Portugal wins · Portugal | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 17,018 | Nov 16, 19:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 15,838 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| San Marino wins · San Marino | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 11,807 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Germany wins · Germany | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 11,345 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| Turkiye wins · Turkiye | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 10,595 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| England wins · England | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 9,726 | Nov 17, 19:45 UTC |
| Armenia wins · Armenia | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 6,064 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Finland wins · Finland | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 5,687 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Finland wins · Finland | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 5,680 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Netherlands wins · Netherlands | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 5,505 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| Italy wins · Italy | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 4,595 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Switzerland wins · Switzerland | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 4,408 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| Albania wins · Albania | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 4,063 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina wins · Bosnia and Herzegovina | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 3,134 | Nov 16, 19:45 UTC |
| San Marino wins · San Marino | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,010 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Greece wins · Greece | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 3,008 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| Wales wins · Wales | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 2,609 | Nov 16, 17:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 2,596 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Spain wins · Spain | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 2,549 | Nov 17, 19:45 UTC |
| Belarus wins · Belarus | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 2,414 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 1,949 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 1,666 | Nov 17, 17:00 UTC |
| Hungary wins · Hungary | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 1,617 | Nov 16, 17:00 UTC |
| Serbia wins · Serbia | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 1,602 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| Cyprus wins · Cyprus | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 1,314 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 1,066 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Norway wins · Norway | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 1,046 | Nov 16, 17:00 UTC |
| Sweden wins · Sweden | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 980 | Nov 16, 19:45 UTC |
| Poland wins · Poland | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 875 | Nov 16, 19:45 UTC |
| Denmark wins · Denmark | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 864 | Nov 16, 19:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 844 | Nov 14, 19:45 UTC |
| Liechtenstein wins · Liechtenstein | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 685 | Nov 15, 19:45 UTC |
| Austria wins · Austria | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 677 | Nov 16, 19:45 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 156 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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