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1st Half Spread on Kalshi
If Turkiye win by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half of the Turkiye vs Belgium professional UEFA Nations League soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox Sports, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
7%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
14% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkiye wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half · Turkiye wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Belgium wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half · Belgium wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Cyprus wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half · Cyprus wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Armenia wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half · Armenia wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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