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Euros Qualifiers on Kalshi
If Wales qualifies for the 2028 UEFA Euros, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Sky Sports, Fox Sports, FIFA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
90%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
21% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · France | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 156 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Spain qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Spain | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 156 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ukraine qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Ukraine | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 112 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will England qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · England | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 83 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Scotland qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Scotland | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 16 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sweden qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Sweden | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 2 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Northern Ireland qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Northern Ireland | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 2 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ireland qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Ireland | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Italy qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Italy | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Wales qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Wales | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Turkiye qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Turkiye | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Slovakia qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Slovakia | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Switzerland qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Switzerland | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Serbia qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Serbia | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Slovenia qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Slovenia | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Romania qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Romania | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Portugal qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Portugal | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Poland qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Poland | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Norway qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Norway | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Netherlands qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Netherlands | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Hungary qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Hungary | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Germany qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Germany | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Georgia qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Georgia | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Denmark qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Denmark | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Czechia qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Czechia | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Croatia qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Croatia | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Bosnia and Herzegovina | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Belgium qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Belgium | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Austria qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Austria | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Albania qualify for the 2028 UEFA Euros? · Albania | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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