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Champions League Women's Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Barcelona vs Arsenal professional Champions League Womens soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 27 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
41% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.77 | 22.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid wins · Real Madrid | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 114,636 | Nov 12, 17:45 UTC |
| PSG wins · PSG | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 61,120 | Nov 12, 20:00 UTC |
| Paris FC wins · Paris FC | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 57,406 | Nov 12, 17:45 UTC |
| Chelsea wins · Chelsea | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 38,838 | Nov 12, 17:45 UTC |
| Hacken Gothenburg wins · Hacken Gothenburg | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 34,703 | Nov 12, 17:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 24,025 | Nov 12, 17:45 UTC |
| Juventus wins · Juventus | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 17,491 | Nov 13, 20:00 UTC |
| Inter Milano wins · Inter Milano | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 17,256 | Nov 12, 20:00 UTC |
| Bayern wins · Bayern | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 16,276 | Nov 12, 20:00 UTC |
| Servette Chenois wins · Servette Chenois | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 8,556 | Nov 12, 20:00 UTC |
| Manchester City wins · Manchester City | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 6,323 | Nov 12, 20:00 UTC |
| Roma wins · Roma | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 5,306 | Nov 12, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 4,993 | Nov 12, 17:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 4,472 | Nov 12, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 3,723 | Nov 12, 20:00 UTC |
| Barcelona wins · Barcelona | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 2,926 | Nov 14, 17:45 UTC |
| Arsenal wins · Arsenal | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 2,401 | Nov 14, 17:45 UTC |
| Koege wins · Koege | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 1,936 | Nov 13, 17:45 UTC |
| Leuven wins · Leuven | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 956 | Nov 13, 17:45 UTC |
| Benfica Lisbon wins · Benfica Lisbon | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 649 | Nov 13, 20:00 UTC |
| Lyon wins · Lyon | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 451 | Nov 13, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 424 | Nov 12, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 285 | Nov 13, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 141 | Nov 14, 17:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 4 | Nov 13, 17:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 13, 20:00 UTC |
| Austria Wien wins · Austria Wien | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 13, 20:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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