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UCL League Phase Top 8 Finishers on Kalshi
If Villarreal finishes in the top 8 in the league phase of the 2026-27 Champions League, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, UCL.
Market says (typical open contract)
19%
Median YES price across 36 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
38% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $2.83 | 20.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Inter finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Inter | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 2,091 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Como finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Como | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 1,919 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will PSG finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · PSG | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 1,859 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Bayern Munich finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Bayern Munich | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 1,574 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Stuttgart finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Stuttgart | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 1,199 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Dortmund finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Dortmund | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 676 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Barcelona finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Barcelona | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 580 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester City finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Manchester City | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 469 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Atletico finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Atletico | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 445 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Real Betis finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Real Betis | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 281 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Liverpool finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Liverpool | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 277 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Bodoe/Glimt finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Bodoe/Glimt | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 201 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Real Madrid finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Real Madrid | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 176 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Sporting CP finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Sporting CP | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 172 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Porto finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Porto | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 140 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Club Brugge finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Club Brugge | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 109 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Roma finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Roma | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 105 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Napoli finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Napoli | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 101 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Galatasaray finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Galatasaray | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 99 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Aston Villa finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Aston Villa | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 88 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Lille finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Lille | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 66 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester United finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Manchester United | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 56 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Arsenal finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Arsenal | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 34 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Villarreal finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Villarreal | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 6 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will PSV Eindhoven finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · PSV Eindhoven | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 5 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will AEK Athens finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · AEK Athens | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Viking finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Viking | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Slovan Bratislava finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Slovan Bratislava | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Slavia Prague finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Slavia Prague | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Shakhtar finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Shakhtar | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Sabah Masazir finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Sabah Masazir | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Lens finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Lens | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Leipzig finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Leipzig | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Feyenoord finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Feyenoord | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Fenerbahce finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Fenerbahce | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will LASK finish in the top 8 of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · LASK | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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