What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 48¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.80.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 50% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 48%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

UAP files on Kalshi

If the federal government has released, after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, previously unreleased documents, audio files, or video files regarding Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (“UAP”), then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, ABC, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico.

Market says (typical open contract)

48%

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

97% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
48¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.82	49.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Trump release new UFO files before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	97%	2,087	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump release new UFO files before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	77¢	77%	1.2¢	—	46%	544	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump release new UFO files before Nov 15, 2026? · Before Nov 15, 2026	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	109	Nov 15, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.