What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 88¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.40.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 89% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 88%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Companies

United Airlines KPI on Kalshi

If United Airlines Holdings Inc. reports Above 196000000 passengers flown in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

88%

Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

23% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
89¢ (now)	0.7¢	$0.38	89.7%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 186 million passengers flown in 2026? · Above 186 million	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	23%	24,017	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 188 million passengers flown in 2026? · Above 188 million	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	63%	18,806	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 190 million passengers flown in 2026? · Above 190 million	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	17,120	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 196 million passengers flown in fiscal 2026? · Above 196 million	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	12,449	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 180 million passengers flown in 2026? · Above 180 million	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	5,983	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 184 million passengers flown in 2026? · Above 184 million	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	5,557	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 178 million passengers flown in 2026? · Above 178 million	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	4,853	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 182 million passengers flown in 2026? · Above 182 million	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	3,827	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 192 million passengers flown in fiscal 2026? · Above 192 million	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	1,844	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 194 million passengers flown in fiscal 2026? · Above 194 million	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	549	Mar 31, 05:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.