What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 26¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.59.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 27% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 26%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

United Airlines KPI on Kalshi

If United Airlines Holdings, Inc. reports Above 46500000 passengers in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

26%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

52% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
26¢ (now)	1.3¢	$2.59	27.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will United Airlines Holdings, Inc. report Above 46 million passengers in Q1 2027? · Above 46 million	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	614	Aug 18, 04:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings, Inc. report Above 46.5 million passengers in Q1 2027? · Above 46.5 million	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	348	Aug 18, 04:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings, Inc. report Above 44.5 million passengers in Q1 2027? · Above 44.5 million	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	260	Aug 18, 04:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings, Inc. report Above 42.5 million passengers in Q1 2027? · Above 42.5 million	83¢	83%	1.0¢	—	34%	217	Aug 18, 04:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings, Inc. report Above 45.5 million passengers in Q1 2027? · Above 45.5 million	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	172	Aug 18, 04:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings, Inc. report Above 45 million passengers in Q1 2027? · Above 45 million	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Aug 18, 04:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings, Inc. report Above 44 million passengers in Q1 2027? · Above 44 million	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	52%	0	Aug 18, 04:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings, Inc. report Above 43.5 million passengers in Q1 2027? · Above 43.5 million	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	92%	0	Aug 18, 04:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings, Inc. report Above 43 million passengers in Q1 2027? · Above 43 million	67¢	67%	1.5¢	—	66%	0	Aug 18, 04:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings, Inc. report Above 42 million passengers in Q1 2027? · Above 42 million	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	16%	0	Aug 18, 04:00 UTC
Will United Airlines Holdings, Inc. report Above 41.5 million passengers in Q1 2027? · Above 41.5 million	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Aug 18, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.