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Texas: Abbott vs. Paxton margin on Kalshi
If Greg Abbott's margin in the Texas governor election minus Ken Paxton's margin in the Texas U.S. Senate election is between 9 and 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Texas Secretary of State.
Market says (typical open contract)
14%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
28% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.01 | 14.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Greg Abbott's governor margin minus Ken Paxton's Senate margin be between 3 and 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Abbott by 3-6 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 5,528 | Jan 29, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Greg Abbott's governor margin minus Ken Paxton's Senate margin be between 6 and 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Abbott by 6-9 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 4,780 | Jan 29, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Ken Paxton's Senate margin minus Greg Abbott's governor margin be between 0.01 and 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Paxton by 0-3 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,495 | Jan 29, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Greg Abbott's governor margin minus Ken Paxton's Senate margin be between 0 and 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Abbott by 0-3 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 2,310 | Jan 29, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Greg Abbott's governor margin minus Ken Paxton's Senate margin be between 9 and 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Abbott by 9-12 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,153 | Jan 29, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Ken Paxton's Senate margin minus Greg Abbott's governor margin be at least 3 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Paxton by 3+ | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,118 | Jan 29, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Greg Abbott's governor margin minus Ken Paxton's Senate margin be at least 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Abbott by 12+ | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 1,082 | Jan 29, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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